https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmehUgOy5ok
notformated
This chart shows China’s birth and death rate over the last 60 years.
For most of it, births are high.
But in 2022, China had more deaths than births, causing its population to decrease for the first time in 6 decades.
To get why this is such a big deal, consider this:
China is the world’s manufacturing superpower and that’s in large part because of its huge population.
Nearly 30% of the country’s economic output comes from manufacturing.
Now, here’s China’s population over the last 60 years.
Even after losing almost a million people in 2022 its population is still about as big as it’s ever been: 1.4 billion people.
But that’s projected to shrink by nearly half1 by the end of the century.
Over the years, China’s growth and policies have contributed to its population decline.
Today, it’s looking to reverse course2 to keep its population steady.
The problem is it might be too late.
In the 50s, under Mao, China experienced, one of the most gruesome famines on record3.
30 million people died.
If we look at that on the birth and death rates chart, you’ll see a big spike4 in deaths.
At the same time, the birth rate dropped causing the population
to shrink.
But, as often happens with wars, famines, and other major crises immediately after, there was a baby boom5.
Combined with global medical advances that decreased infant
mortality rates, China’s average family now had 6 children.
The birth rate had skyrocketed, which the government saw
as a big problem.
The Chinese leadership realized the population was growing too fast
and something needs to be done.
The government came out with a policy…
They called it “Later, Longer, Fewer”.
Later marriages, longer birth intervals, and fewer births.
As a result, China’s birth rate started trending down…
but it wasn’t low enough for China’s leaders.
And in 1980, they implemented the extreme one child policy which limited most families to one child.
That policy was also backed up6 by very harsh7 measures.
There were campaigns of sterilization… IUD insertion and
induced abortions8.
And while9 these campaigns began during the Later, Longer, Fewer era, they were at their worst under the one child policy, when China sterilized 20 million men and women and induced nearly 15 million abortions in a single year.
But China had accomplished
its goal.
Population growth was under control.
Except, as China would soon realize
these restrictive policies
worked a little too well.
In order for any population
to stay the same size
in the long run
each couple needs to have,
on average, 2.1 children.
This is called
the replacement rate.
The idea is that one child
replaces one parent
and that 0.1 makes up for
children who die
before they become adults.
But China has had a fertility rate
that’s far below 2
for over 3 decades.
To bring that up
in 2016, China finally ended
the one child policy.
And after briefly trying out
a three child policy,
in 2021 they finally let families have
as many children as they’d like.
But it hasn’t worked.
One big reason is the
unique family structure
produced by the one child policy.
We’re looking at what’s called a
4-2-1 family structure
with a couple having 4 parents above them
and 1 child below.
Most countries have diverse
family structures
some with 3 kids,
others with none.
But with China’s 4-2-1 model
millions of only children are under
increasing pressure
to care for their aging parents
and elderly grandparents.
And this can make having
multiple children even harder…
especially as the cost of living
keeps rising.
A recent survey revealed that more than
50% of young people
don’t want more than one child
because of financial and work pressures.
We have seen cash subsidies
for additional birth
longer maternal leaves…
subsidies for kindergarten
and all sorts of monetary support.
Well, the thing is, almost none of them
have worked
because having a child is
exceedingly expensive
and it’s a lifelong commitment.
And so it’s really actually hard…
to put a price on this.
But China’s population crisis
isn’t just about babies.
It’s also about the balance
between young and old.
If we look at population pyramids
that show distribution by age…
we see that countries like Kenya
with rapid population growth
look like this:
wide at the bottom
representing a lot of new young people,
and narrow at the top.
Countries experiencing
slower growth
like the Philippines,
are still triangular.
But the difference between top and bottom
is less pronounced.
Now take a look at China, and notice
the narrow bottom, so, fewer babies.
And the heavy top: a larger
number of elderly people.
Which is a happy…
outcome of our improvement
in health and in standard of living
but combined with sustained
low fertility…
that just produces sustained
population aging.
In 2050, that pyramid is projected
to look like this.
And that will further drive down
China’s population
shrink its labor force and
put the whole country
in a uniquely difficult position.
In the 80s, China became a hotspot
for foreign investment
cheap manufacturing
and exports.
A generation later, it was
shooting up the ranks
and becoming one of the world’s leading
and fastest growing economies by GDP.
But not only did that economic modernization
drive birthrates down further,
it also didn’t
translate to an equally strong economy
for everyone.
If we look at the GDP per capita
the best indicator we have
for standard of living
China is much lower than these
high income countries.
China became a major world economy
nearly overnight
but it’s still a middle income country.
Many, especially in rural areas
haven’t benefited much from
China’s economic boom…
and China has yet to develop
the necessary safety nets
to support its aging population.
To build the social infrastructure…
like the social programs in
health care and in pensions…
It takes time.
And that’s getting…
actually tougher with the economy
that’s slowing down.
And a slower economy will inevitably redefine
China’s role in the world as
a manufacturing superpower.
What this means for China,
for the world
is that the resource constraints
from within…
would also constrain Chinese ambition…
and its global reach.
In some ways, China
isn’t alone.
A lot of Asian and European countries
are experiencing population declines, too.
What makes China different is how fast
this all has happened.
It was only 40 years ago
that China started leveraging
its booming population
to become an economic superpower…
all while still trying to stem
population growth.
Now that China’s population growth
is officially over…
China may have to rethink its future
not just as a global superpower
but for its citizens
at home too.
Footnotes
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The price has been reduced by half. [=by 50 percent; by an amount that is equal to one half of the original] 价格降了一半。 ↩
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the general plans someone has to achieve something or the general way something is happening 方针，总方向: ↩
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If you keep information on record, you write it down or store it in a computer so that it can be used later. ↩
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a sudden large increase in sth 猛增；急升 ↩
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A boom in something is an increase in its amount, frequency, or success. ↩
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to support sb/sth; to say that what sb says, etc. is true ↩
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unpleasant, unkind, cruel, or more severe than is necessary: ↩
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人工流产 She decided to undergo an induced abortion due to health complications. ↩
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although ↩